緊急公告:因報名人數踴躍，主辦單位決定更改演講地點為政大綜合院館一樓270113視聽教室舉行，竭誠歡迎您來參加。
Herbert
Simon講座系列#24
Group and
Individual Decision Making
集體決策與個體決策
http://www.aiecon.org/herbertsimon.php/
http://www.aiecon.org/herbertsimon/series%2024/Herbert%20Simon%2024.htm
現實世界中的個體決策時常受到群體決策影響而偏離理性之代表性個人設定，進而產生許多傳統經濟理論無法釋解的典型事實，也使得經濟學家開始由計算能力、社會互動關係、理性限制，…，等各種不同的層面去重新調整完全理性之代表性個人設定，也因此，行為經濟學不但在經濟學研究中成為一個特定領域，也吸引越來越多的學者投入相關的研究。有鑑於此，素來投入有限理性決策的社科院經濟系人工智慧經濟學研究中心邀請Richard J. Zeckhauser教授至本校演講，Zeckhauser教授為哈佛大學（Harvard
University）政治經濟系Frank P. Ramsey 教授，自1968年取得博士學位後，其學術文章達278篇，當中更不乏著名的經濟學國際期刊，諸如Journal of Political
Economy、Journal
of Economic Theory、American Economic Review、Journal of Risk and Uncertainty、Journal of
Economic Behavior and Organization、 Journal of Human
Resources 等等。除了學術研究之卓著之外，Richard J. Zeckhauser
教授亦擔任以下期刊的編輯：Journal of Risk and Uncertainty;
International Journal of Economic Theory and Policy、
Journal of the Economics of Business、 Regulation、 Review of Economics and Statistics、 Journal
of Risk and Insurance、Risk、
Decision and Policy。並且，亦曾擔任World Bank之顧問。Richard J. Zeckhauser教授的學術專長為個體經濟學與決策理論，並將其應用在研究探討民主、分權的分配程序，此外，他的研究亦相當具有政策性意涵，包含，如何促進人類的健康、增進市場效率、資訊如何影響個人和政府機構的選擇。
~竭誠歡迎您來參加~
報名方式如下：
1. 政大聯合報名系統
場次一：http://moltke.cc.nccu.edu.tw/Registration/registration.do?action=conferenceInfo&conferenceID=X07449
場次二：http://moltke.cc.nccu.edu.tw/Registration/registration.do?action=conferenceInfo&conferenceID=X07450
2. email至aiecon.center@gmail.com，留下您的姓名、服務單位或就讀系所及參與場次。
議程Program Schedule
|
場次
Session |
日期 Date |
時間 Time |
講者 Speaker |
題目 Title |
地點 Place |
|
一 |
1/20/2014 |
15:00-17:00 |
Prof. Zeckhauser |
Risk,
Uncertainty and Ignorance |
政大綜合院館一樓270113視聽教室
|
|
二 |
1/21/2014 |
10:00-12:00 |
Prof. Zeckhauser |
The Wisdom
of Crowds and the Stupidity of Herds |
政大綜合院館一樓270113視聽教室
|
相關文獻Related Paper
"Policymaking for Posterity," with Lawrence
Summers, Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty 37(2), 2008,
115-140.
"Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable," in The Known,
the Unknown, and the Unknowable in Financial Risk Management: Measurement and
Theory Advancing Practice, Francis X. Diebold, Neil A. Doherty, Richard J.
Herring (eds.), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010, 304-346.
"Shunning Uncertainty: The Neglect of Learning Opportunities,"
with Stefan T. Trautmann, Games and Economic Behavior, 79, 2013,
44-55.
"New Frontiers Beyond Risk and Uncertainty: Ignorance, Group
Decision, and Unanticipated Themes," Preface 2 in Handbook of
the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty, W. Kip
Viscusi and Mark Machina (eds.), Elsevier, 2013, xvii-xxix.
"Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence," with Jeffrey
A. Friedman, Intelligence and National Security, 27(6),
2012, 824-847.
簡介Introduction
Richard Zeckhauser
Harvard University
Talks at National Chengchi
University
The
goal of my two talks is to introduce a variety of central concepts in decision
theory, and to reveal the behavioral difficulties individuals and groups have
in making effective decisions.
Participants will be asked to make a number of actual decisions during
the talks. The goal is to improve
their decision making capabilities in real time.
January 20, 2014
Risk, Uncertainty and Ignorance
Individuals have difficulties making decisions under risk,
that is when probabilities are well defined. They do more poorly when uncertainty is
present, when probabilities are ill defined. This talk proposes the additional category
of ignorance. It embraces
situations where even the states of the world cannot be identified. Ignorance confronts us in many of the
most important decisions made by individuals or groups. Needless to say, since the subject is
not even incorporated in traditional decision analysis or economics, mere
humans often fail to recognize that they are in a situation of ignorance. An array of behavioral difficulties that
arise under these three conditions will be illustrated, often with real-time
experiments. Practical advice for
improving decisions will be offered.
January 21,
2014
The Wisdom
of Crowds and the Stupidity of Herds
Drawing on popular books and popular websites, such as those dealing
with crowd-sourcing much has been made of the potential for calling on groups to
gather information and foster superior decisions. Many of the most important decisions in
society – those made by most businesses, bureaus and
legislatures – are made by groups. Once a group is making a decision, the
individuals within that group have to worry about how their participation will
be received. In many circumstances,
group decisions compound rather than ameliorate the difficulties individuals
have when they make decisions.
Thus, for example, groups often take stands more extreme than those held
by any of their members; the members of groups herd, thereby suppressing
information; and groups stick with the status quo even more than its members
would individually. The concept of
the wisdom of crowds should be complemented by the concept of the stupidity of
herds, or more generally the ineptitude of groups. Experiments will be conducted. Practical advice for improving group
decisions will be offered.
主辦單位Sponsor
國立政治大學社會科學學院人工智慧經濟學研究中心
(AI-ECON Research Center)
國立政治大學經濟系
(Department of Economics, National Chengchi University)
協辦單位Sponsor
國家科學委員會
(National Science Council)